Is Darwin property about to go Boom?

Marty McDonald

Darwin is one of those boom-and-bust property markets that will do nothing for years and then all of a sudden go boom. I think this could be about to happen.

I can remember a time when Darwin’s median house prices were about 20%- 25% less than Sydney’s. Today that figure is about 300% less!

Darwin’s property prices have been in the doldrums for over 10 years now. However, a new pro-business government, government property grants (up to $50K for FHB’s), property prices significantly lower now in real terms than they were 10 years ago, high average wages, the lowest capital city house prices and the highest capital city rental yields ALL point to a potential for a rapid jump in prices.

In the last 10 years wages growth has outstripped property price growth. See graph below. This is the only capital city in the country where that has happened. NSW graph below shows what most of the rest of the country has been like.

June 2024 - Northern Territory's prices are the lowest of the capital cities and rental yields the highest

*The median price of houses was $567,000 with median weekly rents $634 per week. This is a 5.8% pa gross yield.

*The median price of units was $390,000 with median weekly rents $496 per week. This is a 6.6% pa gross yield.

Source: https://nteconomy.nt.gov.au/housing

Darwin property price growth has underperformed 

Figures up to Jan 2024

Rental vacancy rates

We looked a rental vacancy rates in postcode 0810 which is the Northern suburbs of Darwin including Nightcliff, Casuarina, Coconut Grove and Rapid Creek. 

According to SQM Research current vacany rates are at about 1%, so a pretty tight rental market. No warning bells there.

Some risks to consider

*It’s a boom bust town with prices going backwards for 10+ years. So, the risk is you could be caught with a nonperforming property for years if the timing is wrong. A mitigant is the high rental yields which should make holding costs bearable.

*Unit oversupply in the city has been an issue in the past.

*Tropical storms / increased storms from climate change and the related insurance costs / escalating costs.

*Potentially declining population. New gas projects etc need approval to keep the population stable / growing

 

About the Author: Marty McDonald is principal of mortgage broker “Mortgage Experts”. Marty specialises in assisting active property investors with loan structuring advice and implementation as well as helping credit worthy borrowers with slightly outside the box income and employment situations. Find Marty on  and LinkedIn.
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