Are mortgage rates expected to drop again?

The average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed has jumped to 5.55% as of August 25, compared to just 3.22% at the start of the year.

The average cost of a 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage has also surged—up to 4.85% as of late August, compared to 2.43% in early January.

  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): “Given the weaker outlook for growth, we continue to estimate a 50% likelihood of a mild recession over the next 12 months. If this materializes with a recession in the first half of 2023, the employment rate is expected to reach 5.5% by the end of 2023 and mortgage rates would fall around 30 basis points from the baseline forecast level [of 5.2%].”